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Kirk's Semiconductor Resource Page
by Kirk Lindstrom


Chip Sales Estimates  - Semi Sales Estimates vs Time  -   Chip Making Process  -  Top Capital Equipment Spenders - CapEx Sales Forecasts
LCD TV Sales Forecasts      
 
Semiconductor Capital Equipment
BOOK to BILL RATIO

Historical Peak was October 2000 with Bookings at $2,993B and Billing at $2,574B
$M
Shipments (Billings)
Bookings 
Book-to-Bill Ratio

Prelim.
Final
Prelim
Final
Prelim
Final
January 2000
1,603.5
2,227.3
1.39
February 2000
1,594.3
2,301.5
1.44
March 2000
1,744.9
2,546.5
1.46
April 2000
1,991.4
2,715.7
1.36
May 2000
2,157.7
2,778.3
1.29
June 2000
2,259.6
2,858.8
1.27
July 2000
2,373.0
2,901.5
1.22
August 2000
2,431.0
2,984.1
1.23
Sept. 2000
-
2,475.9
-
  2,887.6
-
1.17
October 2000
-
2,573.8
-
2,993.1
-
1.16
Nov  2000
-
2,422.3
-
2,707.3
-
1.12
Dec 2000
-
2,389.4
-
2,372.2
-
0.99
January   2001
2,329.1
2,308.4
1,874.4
1,854.1
-
0.80
Feb. 2001 
2,294.3
2,279.3
1,803.1
1,610.9
0.77
0.71
March 2001 
2,038.4
2,020.2
1,305.1
1,197.3
0.64
0.59
April    2001 
1,684.5
1,654.6
711.8
721.3
0.42
0.44
May 2001
1,525.2
1,461.8
704.4
723.4
0.46
0.49
June 2001 
1,310.8
1,359.8
704.7
730.7
0.54
0.54
July 2001 
1,318.9
1,191.7
764.2
768.9
0.67
0.65
August 2001 
1,207.4
1,143.7
742.2
714.6
0.61
0.62
Sept. 2001 
993.4
960.7
644.3
614.0
0.65
0.64
October 2001
916.2
895.5
651.1
644.4
0.71
0.72
Nov. 2001
842.2
817.2
612.3
588.9
0.73
0.72
Dec. 2001 
834.9
819.3
652.4
628.5
0.78
0.77
Jan. 2002 
784.0
799.9
636.9
645.2
0.81
0.81
Feb. 2002
822.1
818.0
711.6
737.2
0.87
0.90
Mar. 2002
808.1
797.6
838.8
835.9
1.04
1.05
April 2002 
821.5
814.6
982.0
995.6
1.20
1.22
May 2002  816.7 869.6 1,084.0 1,105.2 1.26 1.27
June 2002  906.4 927.1 1,159.1 1,171.3 1.28 1.26
July 2002 995.3 969.1 1153.1 1,181.9 1.16 1.22
August 2002  981.2 994.8 1121.7 1,016.8 1.14 1.02
Sept. 2002 984.7 1,044.6 822.6 831.6 0.84 0.80
Oct. 2002 1,054.9 999.9 765.7 775.1 0.73 0.78
Nov. 2002 991.3 976.4
 778.6 776.7
 0.79 0.80
Dec. 2002
 853.2
 878.3
 839.2
 826.5
 0.98
 0.94
January 2003
 805.5
 784.4
 741.7
 739.0
 0.92
 0.94
Feb. 2003
 792.9
 777.7
 781.7
 760.6
 0.99
 0.98
March 2003
 834.3
 857.1
 822.5
 777.3
 0.99
 0.91
April 2003
 853.8
 840.4
 737.2
 757.3
 0.86
 0.90
May 2003
 839.5
 805.4
 751.3
 723.5
 0.89
 0.93
June 2003
 770.5
 776.5
 720.3
 722.3
 0.93
 0.93
July 2003
 787.6
 785.9
 763.4
 706.9
 0.97
 0.90
August 2003
 789.9
 792.3
 720.6
 731.8
 0.91
 0.92
Sept. 2003
 803.5
 811.1
 760.5
 778.8
 0.95
 0.96
Oct. 2003
 873.4
 866.5
 871.1
 871.0
 1.00
 1.01
Nov. 2003
 893.1
 876.4
 930.4
 923.3
 1.04
 1.05
Dec. 2003
 917.6
 962.9
 1,100.3
 1,181.1
 1.20
 1.23
Jan. 2004
 1,041.7
 1,033.7
 1,224.4
 1,226.1
 1.18
 1.19
Feb. 2004
 1,148.1
 1,144.0
 1,305.5,
 1,316.4
 1.14
 1.15
March 2004
 1,201.2
 1,268.1
 1,320.7
 1,378.8
 1.10
 1.09
April 2004
 1,401.2
 1,394.0
 1,594.1
 1,581.6
 1.14
 1.13
May 2004
 1,422.2
 1,412.7
 1,576.8
 1,559.6
 1.11
 1.10
June 2004
 1,481.7
 1,503.4
 1,606.8
 1,609.1
 1.08
 1.07
July 2004
 1,538.3
 1,526.9
 1,610.1
 1,587.4
 1.05
 1.04
Aug. 2004
 1,509.3
 1,510.8
 1,515.3
 1,497.8
 1.00
 1.01
Sept. 2004
 1,419.8
 1,441.2
 1,359.0
 1,349.8 0.96
 0.94
Oct. 2004
 1,443.4
 1,430.6
 1,392.1
 1,373.1
 0.96
 0.96
Nov. 2004
 1,342.7
 1,338.4
 1,345.1
 1,329.1
 1.00
 0.99
Dec. 2004
 1,305.2
 1,317.3
 1,235.2
 1,235.7
 0.95
 0.94
Jan. 2005
 1,267.6
 1,258.6
 1,010.7
   986.4
 0.80
 0.78
Feb. 2005
 1,316.0
 1,330.6
 1,025.0
 1,024
 0.78
 0.77
March 2005
 1,268.9
 1,272.5
 1,021.5
  988.4
 0.81
 0.78
April 2005
 1,251.9
 1,239.2
 1,003.4
 998.8
 0.80
 0.81
May 2005
 1,207.4
 1,213.0
 1,025.4
 1,015.3
 0.85
 0.84
June 2005
 1,153.5
 1,152.2
 1,070.9
 1,038.0
 0.93
 0.90
July 2005
 1,097.4
 1,078.2
 1,020.7
 1,007.3
 0.93
 0.93
Aug 2005
 1,065.9
 1,055.5
 1,115.4
 1,022.3
 1.05
 0.97
Sep 2005
1,070.7
1,088.2
1,089.2
984.1
1.02
0.90
Oct 2005
 1,156.2
 1,145.9
 1,104.1
 1,093.9
 0.95
 0.95
Nov 2005
 1,184.4
 1,179.7
 1,092.9
 1,093.2
 0.92
 0.93
Dec 2005
 1,186.5
 1,223.6
 1,144.0
 1,142.7
 0.96
 0.93
Jan 2006
 1,291.0
 1,259.4
 1,256.8
 1,225.9
 0.97
 0.97
Feb 2006
1,286.1
1,283.3
1,296..7
1,293.2 1.01
1.01
March 2006
 1,297.5
 1,3387.7
 1,354.6
 1,385.3
 1.04
 1.03
April 2006
 1,448.5
 1,441.4
 1,602.4
 1,604.4
 1.11
 1.11
May 2006
 1,481.3
 1,452.6
 1,652.1
 1,619.0
 1.12
 1.11
June2006
1,531.5
1,557.4
1,745.6
1,782.3
1.14
1.14
July2006
1,647.7

1,749.0

1.06

in $M
 Shipments (Billings) Bookings
Book-to-Bill Ratio
Cycle: Highs in Red, Lows in Blue 


The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three month moving average bookings to three month moving average shipments for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. Shipments and bookings figures are in millions of U.S. dollars.

Data and table compiled by Kirk Lindstrom, editor of "Kirk's Online Investment Newsletter"

For discussion of the data and related news, see Semiconductor Capital Equipment Stocks Discussion at Suite101.com where Kirk is the Contributing Editor for "Investing - Personal Finance"

I also like to read Wennerstrom Semi Equipment Analysis on Silicon Investor

Date of
Low Bookings
  Total Bookings
   Change 
Months since
prior Low
 Annualized
Growth since prior low
Nov. 2001
 $588.9


July. 2003
 $706.9
 20.0%
 21
 11.0%
Jan. 2005
$986.4
 39.5%
 19
 23.4%

Copyright 2005-2006 by Kirk Lindstrom
Monthly [not averages] SIA sales data:  http://www.sia-online.org/downloads/ACF2DE.pdf


Related Links:

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World Wide Semiconductor Sales in $B

09/08/05 '05 - '07 Estimated Total Sales = 233 + 243 + 261 = $737B (they didn't update '07)
05/26/05 '05 - '07 Estimated Total Sales = 233 + 248 + 261 = $742B  up $41B (5.5%)
Prior         '05 - '07 Estimated Total Sales = 214 + 228 + 259 = $701B

Global semiconductor equipment capex breakdown by region, 2004-2008 (US$ billion)

 

2004(A)

2005(F)

2006(F)

2007(F)

2008(F)

China

2.73

1.63

2.13

2.45

2.54

S.Korea

4.61

5.61

5.99

6.57

7.65

Europe

3.44

3.31

3.35

3.52

3.77

Taiwan

7.76

6.15

6.89

7.9

9.08

Japan

8.27

7.79

8.17

9.01

10.41

N.America

5.81

5.22

5.62

5.96

6.62

Others

4.49

2.92

3.13

3.45

4.24

Total

37.11

32.63

35.28

38.86

44.31

YoY (%)

67%

(14%)

8%

9%

12%

(F=forecast) Source: SEMI, July 2005. From What’s next for the IC equipment industry?


3/06/06 Intel to top Samsung in capex for '06  SAN JOSE, Calif. — Intel Corp. is projected to top Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. in capital spending for 2006, according to the new rankings from investment banking firm Pacific Crest Securities Inc. (See rankings table below)
Top 25

I sure like that 10% year over year growth after only 3% growth in 2005

Top 30 capex companies, 2001-2005 (US$million)

Ranking

Company

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005E

1

Samsung

2,580

2,570

3,332

5,300

5,900

2

Intel

7,309

4,703

3,650

3,800

5,600

3

TSMC

2,006

1,592

1,315

2,400

2,600

4

Hynix

394

348

530

1,700

2,000

5

Toshiba

390

530

1,164

2,470

1,860

6

Powerchip

224

450

382

800

1,650

7

Sony

1,135

572

1,200

1,380

1,510

8

Micron

1,164

930

1,075

1,324

1,500

9

STMicro

1,700

996

1,221

2,000

1,500

10

AMD

679

705

586

1,400

1,500

11

Infineon

2,076

850

886

1,500

1,350

12

Elpida

119

451

757

1,150

1,350

13

TI

1,790

802

800

1,300

1,300

14

UMC

1,075

805

739

2,560

1,250

15

IBM

1,670

1,365

850

925

1,130

16

Matsushita

306

463

500

1,230

1,130

17

Fujistu

1541

379

375

463

1000

18

NEC

630

610

772

1,500

940

19

SMIC

460

762

453

2,000

900

20

Inotera

0

0

413

1130

900

21

Renesas

0

395

759

831

750

22

Winbond

180

103

152

125

700

23

PoroMOS

484

299

172

426

796

24

Chartered

490

420

221

686

750

25

Sharp

335

340

360

420

600

26

Freescale

613

219

310

522

525

27

Philips

1060

477

300

760

500

28

Rohm

597

341

473

350

425

29

Grace

10

460

575

800

400

30

Nanya

300

120

600

119

217

Total

31,317

23,057

24,922

41,371

42,533

31,317

*UMC's capex includes UMC, UMCJ and UMCi
**Nanya's capex includes Inotera Memories
Source: Thomas Weisel Partner LCC, June 2005.
From What’s next for the IC equipment industry?

World Wide Chip Sales Forecasts

SIA Semiconductor Industry Association Forecasts (Changes in Blue)
New Data (11/16/05) Update
Year   $B  Growth

2004   213     6.1%
2005E  227.6   6.8%
2006E  245.5   7.9%
2007E  271.3  10.5%
2008E  309.2  13.9% 
Forecast Growth Rate "nearly 10%"
Old Data (6/8/05) Update
Year   $B  Growth

2004   213   6.1%
2005E  226   6.0%
2006E  246   8.8%
2007E  273  11.0%
2008E  309  13.2%
Forecast Growth Rate of 9.8% 


iSupply Forecasts (Changes in Blue)
New Data (9/8/05)
Year   $B  Growth
1998   122      
1999   149  22.1%
2000   204  36.9%
2001   139 -31.9%
2002   141   1.4%
2003   166  17.7%
2004E  227  36.8%
2005E  233   2.4%
2006E  243   4.3%
2007E  261   7.4%
9/8/05 Update
New Data (5/26/05)
Year   $B  Growth
1998   122      
1999   149  22.1%
2000   204  36.9%
2001   139 -31.9%
2002   141   1.4%
2003   166  17.7%
2004E  220  32.5%
2005E  233   5.9%
2006E  248   6.5%
2007E  261   5.2%
5/26/05 Update
Old Data
Year   $B  Growth
1998   122      
1999   149  22.1%
2000   204  36.9%
2001   139 -31.9%
2002   141   1.4%
2003   166  17.7%
2004E  214  28.9%
2005E  214   0.0%
2006E  228   6.5%
2007E  259  13.6%


SI